As already stated in earlier entries, the Cloud started with Web 2.0 and the Social Networking phenomena. Since, it has taken a life of its own, and is attracting many SMB's (Small and Medium Businesses) allowing them to fully rely on a cloud provider to address their IT needs. The needs of large enterprises are different, so the question has to be raised whether they should move to the cloud or not.

Before answering this question, let's look at the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. In the 2008 edition Gartner positions Cloud Computing towards the high end of the "Technology Trigger", ready to enter the "Peak of Inflated Expectations". This positioning was done in June 2008, and I believe most people agree that, with the amount of material written on the subject, the current positioning is close to the top of the curve. In their excellent book, titled "Mastering the Hype Cycle", Jack Fenn and Mark Raskino point out four key characteristics need to be addressed prior to reaching the "Plateau of Productivity". These are:

• 1. Performance needs to be in line with expectations from a functions & features, a speeds & feeds, and reliability perspective
• 2. Integration needs to exist, i.e. the technology needs to be compatible with existing IT and experts need to be available to properly configure and install the technology
• 3. Adoption needs to be there, in the sense that the staff needs the ability to effectively use the tools and that the technology needs to have spread throughout the organization
• 4. The Payback needs to be clearly available, return on investment needs to be visible and the technology should be leveraged in other areas.

For the ones who follow Cloud Computing, it's obvious we are not there yet. So the question is really whether it makes sense to invest in cloud computing today. The answer is not a simple one as the response depends on the enterprise's position towards technology. Knowing that Cloud Computing will go through the "Trough of Disillusionment" and that bad press will start to appear on the subject (isn't that what has happened lately?), the question is really whether the company can support such an initiative in a hostile environment.

If the enterprise is what is usually called an "Early Adopter" and if it understands clearly the headwinds it will be confronted to, an investment at this moment will prepare the company to take full advantage of Cloud Computing when the "Plateau of Productivity" has been reached. An early start will ensure the experience and expertise is available in due time.

If on the other hand, the enterprise is a "Fast Follower" it is probably better not to invest at the moment, as the chances the investments will last throughout the "Trough of Disillusionment" are slim. Current investments will be wasted in the process. The company should monitor carefully what happens and as soon as the "Slope of Enlightenment" is starting, it may be better off hiring a couple specialists from an early adopter to ensure a head start.

If the enterprise is "mainstream", no investment should be made till the technology is well engaged in the "Slope of Enlightenment".

In the end it is up to the enterprise to decide when it starts investing in a new technology, however, once decided, the company should go through a maturity model, which I shortly describe here:

• 1. Heroic, this is the stage where there are a lot of discussions on the subject, but little is happening. A couple initiatives are run in isolation, often outside IT's control. There is no coordination and no leveraging of the experiences gained.
• 2. Organized, a decision is taken that cloud computing is worth looking at, an approach is defined and agreed upon, a consistent architecture is established. Initial pilot projects have started, typically using SaaS or addressing the needs of small and well contained application areas. Initial governance and sharing is put in place.
• 3. Adopted, this is when top management weighs in and demonstrates its commitments. Pilots are now rolled out and new applications are moved to the cloud when applicable. The program is very visible, well communicated and managed. Initial results are identified and celebrated.
• 4. Measured, at this stage the development, migration, management and measurement processes are in place. Cloud applications are now integrated with the in-house/hosted IT environments. Projects are measured and evaluated and return-on-investments are established.
• 5. Expandable, the cloud is now one of many technologies used in house. Services are continuously reviewed for improvement and best sourcing approaches. Full service lifecycle governance is in place.

Most companies are currently at level 1 in the maturity model, some of them are still at level 0 (the ostrich level), not even believing they have anything to do with this new buzzword. Deciding when to progress to level 2 and understanding how to move up the model are critical for companies that want to take full advantage of cloud computing early.