The final section of the security printing/evolution allegory is punctuated equilibrium. Punctuated equilibrium is an evolutionary biology hypothesis largely attributable to Niles Eldridge and Stephen Jay Gould in 1972. The theory states that species normally undergo relatively modest phenotypic change. However, when phenotypic (outward appearance) evolution occurs, it involves rare and relatively rapid change in the genetics of the species. Thus, the genetic similarity for the population is “punctuated”—changing rapidly for a relatively brief period, then changing slowly over a much longer time period.

Punctuated equilibrium does not oppose gradualism, the relatively secure theory of evolution that proposes an incremental change during evolution, with no great discontinuities between generations. Gould noted that punctuated equilibrium is supported by the fossil record, in which species are stable, phenotypically, for long periods of time; then, their descendent species appears in a relatively small time period.

If punctuated equilibrium exists, then what drives this seeming accelerated change? Why does the evolutionary rate seemingly increase? My perspective is that the rate does not necessarily change at all. Instead, the effective rate changes only because the environment itself is changing. So, the normal rate of mutation results in changes that lead to enhanced survival rate precisely because the environment can change faster than the based rate of change. As an example, a comet hits, and all the old advantages for survival—say, size, strength and speed—are less relevant. What survives now may survive because it was actually less fit in the old environment. Thus, the apparent rate of change increases only because the fringe members of the species that do survive become the norm of the “new” species that survive later.

Punctuated equilibrium has been applied to other fields. For example, in 1993, Frank Baumgartner and Bryan Jones noted that policy change can be described by punctuated equilibrium, inasmuch as policy changes slowly while one regime, party or system is in power, and then tends to change greatly when there is a transition in leadership.

We can apply this to printing, as well. Evolution was slow until the Johannes Gutenberg punctuation of 1440 helped change the slow and laborious process of scribes to the relative speed and efficacy of typed printing. Digital printing, certainly for security and customizability, is providing another “punctuated equilibrium” currently. However, the environment in which printing exists is changing quickly, too. The Internet and other fully-electronic workflows (RFID, for example) mean that many aspects of “traditional printing”—that is, printing 20 years ago—are no longer relevant. Printing that survives will seemingly change faster than the actual printing technology is changing, precisely because the “leaps” will likely survive better than the incremental changes. For example, look at the “–ology” series (http://www.ologyworld.com/), in which printing is merged with “manufacturing”—the inclusion of feathers, flaps and felt, for example—to successfully differentiate the “in-hand” from the “on-line”.

In security printing and imaging, punctuated equilibrium can be used to advantage. With a plurality of printed security deterrents, the brand owner can readily switch between the current deployment of deterrents—which are used for tracking, authentication, forensics, decoying and baiting, any combination thereof; or simply unused for the moment—to a new set and change the security strategy. The outward change in the set of deterrents is minimal or none. Then, when no new deployment strategy is possible—due to compromise of the deterrents or “inside job”—a new set of deterrents is deployed. The new set can be used in multiple future deployments. Thus, the outward rate of change in the security deterrents used exhibits punctuated equilibrium—steady state for a relatively long period, followed by a “massive change”—even though the rate of change for deployment (tracking, authentication, etc.) remains the same.

No matter how you look at it, security is the art of evolving, adapting and changing to survive the environment. Variable data printing makes evolution easier. Change is built-in.

-Steve

[Thanks to Bisbee Finks for helpful comment on the "cladogram", incorporated into the post above--I'm going to pass on the suggested Stalin analogy, though it was definitely creative!  Cheers, Steve]