About this time every year, I make my predictions on what I think lays ahead for the media industry.  And again, this year, I’ll do the same, but with a slight focus on the Digital side of the world. 

1. It’s the Economy stupid!  
1. More newspapers and print publications will go out of business – as you’ve probably read, Tribune recently filed for bankruptcy.  And with the current economic climate, print advertising will continue to suffer the woes they’ve been feeling the past 5 years.  The problem… not only are advertisers shifting to digital, but the cost per thousand for online is usually significantly lower than other forms of media so it’s not a just a matter of gaining share, but they’re caught between a rock and hard place as it relates to raising prices.

2. Weaker online sites will see advertising revenue sales fall – reason?  Advertisers are seeing advertising budgets decrease or be frozen… thus the pie is getting smaller.

3. Sponsorships will take a beating….unless they can offer a unique customer experience or become very digitally focused.  Between NASCARs challenges, the NFL re-evaluating sponsorships, etc.  The days of putting signage up in an arena or naming rights are gone.  The next phase of sponsorship is customer engagement and digital experience.

4. Social Websites will see a decrease in ad revenue – for all the above reasons (see point a), but more because marketers are realizing that community development is critical.

2. Community development will be a priority – marketers will engage differently with the end customer by developing stronger communities and/or engaging with current standing communities.

3. Rise of the “Un-Badged Employee” – when people are look to purchase a product or service they usually ask around if anyone has any experience  or recommendations.  So marketers will start to drive more influence communications to key individuals who act as “brand ambassadors” and recommend the brand to others.  Apple has been doing this for years, but it’s becoming more commonplace.  If you don’t agree, just look at Amazon.com or CNET.com.

4. SEO will become more important – with decreased budgets, SEM will also feel the budget pinch, so advertisers will focus more attention on SEO to decrease costs and increase search page placement.

5. Again, mobile will struggle – although mobile applications are becoming more widespread and the use of data is becoming more commonplace, the issues of separate network carriers, too many media rep companies, and the general confusion of what you can/can’t do with mobile will keep it from gathering steam in the US.

6. Google will continue to gain share – ok this is a “duh” prediction, I admit it.  But with Yahoo in turmoil, the recent layoffs, Microsoft not making headway on revenue in the online space… Google will extend it’s lead – either by sure will might and force or through acquisition.

7. Online Upfronts get more momentum – in order to secure inventory and reduce costs look for more advertisers to commit to online upfronts.  Which begs the question, what about the television upfronts?  Hell if I know.  The past 3 years I’ve been predicting a shift in the amount of dollars going into the upfront and I’ve been wrong… suppose I’ll stick to that prediction this year because as my boss Chris Curtin is famous for saying “a broken clock is still correct 2 times a day.”  Perhaps I’ll hit paydirt this year!

8. Digital television platform (aka Canoe Ventures) will get serious attention – as Canoe begins to roll out it’s digital tv platform, more advertisers will begin experimenting and targeting advertising in the new nirvana state of advertising.

9. CRM and database marketing will make a comeback – yes you heard me right, the data geeks will reign again.  With Canoe Ventures, integration and analysis of click stream data, advertisers will become even more focused on eliminating inefficient advertising and marketing and getting the right message to the right person.

10.  Media inventory costs will decline – regardless of whether you’re buying upfront or not.  See point 1.  The glut of inventory will put marketers in a stronger position to negotiate further cost cuts and added value.  Look for the auto industry to cut spending so dramatically that prices could fall 30% in some media categories over the current levels.

So here are my thoughts… what do predict???

Scott