Late last year I posted my 2009 Digital Media Trends.  I thought it would be a good idea to see where they stand as well as add in a few other trends I’m starting to see emerge.

1. It’s the Economy Stupid...
1. More newspapers and print publications will go out of business -- I hate to actually say this one is dead on.  All you have to read are the following articles on the demise of newspapers across the US.

San Francisco Chronicle Might Shut Down

Denver Rocky Mountain News Shuts Down

Derby Daily Reporter Shutting Down

Taconic Group Newspapers Shut Down

Accuracy:   Dead On

2. Weaker online sites will see advertising revenue sales fall – the economy is not only pushing pure “print” revenue down, but newspapers online revenue as well as “pure play” digital advertising is taking a hit as budgets get tight.

Search Revenue Falling

Online Video Ad Revenue Decreasing

Digital Shops Begin to Feel Effects of the Economy

                                    Accuracy:  Dead On

3. Sponsorships will take a beating…. 

RBS Sports Sponsorships

Sports Sponsorships Take a Beating

Accuracy:  Dead On

4. Social Websites will see a decrease in ad revenue –

Accuracy:  Too early to tell

2. Community development will be a priority – marketers will engage differently with the end customer by developing stronger communities and/or engaging with current standing communities.

Accuracy:  Too early to tell

3. Rise of the “Un-Badged Employee” – most people use reviews before making a product or service purchase… but in an economic downturn, that input revs up to make sure the purchase is what the consumer wants.  Check out this article.

Accuracy:  Dead on

4. SEO will become more important – with decreased budgets, SEM will also feel the budget pinch, so advertisers will focus more attention on SEO to decrease costs and increase search page placement.

US Search Spending Falters

Accuracy:  Too early to tell

5. Again, mobile will struggle – tough to tell right now… but keep your eyes/ears tuned in the coming months.

Mobile Marketing Watch Newsletter

Accuracy:  Too early to tell

6. Google will continue to gain share – ok this is a “duh” prediction, I admit it.  But with Yahoo in turmoil, the recent layoffs, Microsoft not making headway on revenue in the online space… Google will extend it’s lead – either by sure will might and force or through acquisition.

Google’s Share Extends

Accuracy:  Dead On

7. Online Upfronts get more momentum –

Accuracy: Too early to tell (but if I was a betting man) – I’d say I’m way off on this one.  Prices are falling as demand craters… who wants to get locked in on long term inventory when the short term rates continue to fall.

8. Digital television platform (aka Canoe Ventures) will get serious attention – Certainly the new administration pushing back the digital transition date didn’t help, but frankly with the advertising world in a tail spin right now, Canoe still holds promise of better targeting….although I think most advertisers wished it were live and ready to go today.

Accuracy:  Too early to tell

9. CRM and database marketing will make a comeback – well I’m not seeing it yet… although my email box is deluged daily with a great deal more email than ever, but I can’t attribute that to better CRM or just desperation on behalf of marketers.  Plus, with the economy in the dumper, big tech projects are harder to sell unless they can guarantee a result.

Accuracy:  Seems I was a bit too optimistic

10.  Media inventory costs will decline – regardless of whether you’re buying upfront or not.   This one is definitely on track… with the networks taking a bath on inventory, newspapers having difficulty selling pages prices are falling.  What’s concerning is we’re only in March…what will this look like in July? 

Accuracy:  Dead On

Scott