The Changing Face of Digital Media & Marketing : media forecast

When Will Things Get Back to Normal?

Scott Berg — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 15:23:00 GMT

During the past 6 months, I can’t tell you the number of times someone has commented about “when will things settle down” or “I can’t wait until things get back to normal.” And although I’m a bit nostalgic about wanting things to settle down and “get back to normal” I’ve come to realize this is the new norm for the media, digital and advertising industry. So what is the new norm? Tough question to answer, but here’s my stab at a few of the general themes.

Technology will drive new media models -- for instance, HP’s own MagCloud allows anyone to be a publisher, thus, opening up a new way to go to market for both small and large publishers.
Buzz will rule/Listening will be critical – just look at the Dominoes situation and the recent Swine Flu discussions occurring on Twitter. Not only does marketing need to listen to customer’s requirements, complaints, etc. but PR will need to be much more active in the listening and decisions they make related to response. Getting in front of a story is moving from hours to respond to minutes.
Advertising budgets will continue to fracture – given more avenues to reach the customer and the need to purchase additional tools, metrics to react and manage the communication ecosystem.
Media plans will migrate to communication plans – is Twitter a media type? What about blogs? Who knows? Who really cares? The bottom line, companies will use these different channels and the media plan will reflect these new realities.
Campaigns will morph into communication ecosystem management – being able to influence, analyze and put metrics around the entire purchase funnel on a consistent basis will drive companies to manage the ecosystem vs. coming in and out of the market with campaigns. This will be a necessity given the need to manage and forecast financial performance on a more consistent basis.
Media properties will either “thrive or die” – all you have to do is look at the news daily to see companies merging, selling to someone or shutting down. I don’t think this will be limited to just traditional media…the next phase could start impacting online sites, content distribution platforms and toolsets.
“Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is” – companies will begin to require true performance aka sales as a measure of a media channel or properties worth. Let’s face it, everyone says media works during the sales pitch… if that’s the case, guarantee it. If you hit targets you get paid, if you don’t hit them, you don’t get paid.
Media representatives and properties will become consultants vs. sales focused – see #7 as the reason why.
The workday will be 24 by 7 vs. 8 to 5. See above.
Change will be the only constant…we will all be faced with major differing challenges every single day – our worth will be determined not only by our financial performance to the companies bottom line, but in our ability to manage change.

Welcome to the reality!

Scott

2009 Digital Media Trends – Update & Scorecard

Scott Berg — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 17:28:00 GMT

Late last year I posted my 2009 Digital Media Trends. I thought it would be a good idea to see where they stand as well as add in a few other trends I’m starting to see emerge.

It’s the Economy Stupid...

More newspapers and print publications will go out of business -- I hate to actually say this one is dead on. All you have to read are the following articles on the demise of newspapers across the US.

San Francisco Chronicle Might Shut Down

Denver Rocky Mountain News Shuts Down

Derby Daily Reporter Shutting Down

Taconic Group Newspapers Shut Down

Accuracy: Dead On

Weaker online sites will see advertising revenue sales fall – the economy is not only pushing pure “print” revenue down, but newspapers online revenue as well as “pure play” digital advertising is taking a hit as budgets get tight.

Search Revenue Falling

Online Video Ad Revenue Decreasing

Digital Shops Begin to Feel Effects of the Economy

Accuracy: Dead On

Sponsorships will take a beating….

RBS Sports Sponsorships

Sports Sponsorships Take a Beating

Accuracy: Dead On

Social Websites will see a decrease in ad revenue –

Accuracy: Too early to tell

Community development will be a priority – marketers will engage differently with the end customer by developing stronger communities and/or engaging with current standing communities.

Accuracy: Too early to tell

Rise of the “Un-Badged Employee” – most people use reviews before making a product or service purchase… but in an economic downturn, that input revs up to make sure the purchase is what the consumer wants. Check out this article.

Accuracy: Dead on

SEO will become more important – with decreased budgets, SEM will also feel the budget pinch, so advertisers will focus more attention on SEO to decrease costs and increase search page placement.

US Search Spending Falters

Accuracy: Too early to tell

Again, mobile will struggle – tough to tell right now… but keep your eyes/ears tuned in the coming months.

Mobile Marketing Watch Newsletter

Accuracy: Too early to tell

Google will continue to gain share – ok this is a “duh” prediction, I admit it. But with Yahoo in turmoil, the recent layoffs, Microsoft not making headway on revenue in the online space… Google will extend it’s lead – either by sure will might and force or through acquisition.

Google’s Share Extends

Accuracy: Dead On

Online Upfronts get more momentum –

Accuracy: Too early to tell (but if I was a betting man) – I’d say I’m way off on this one. Prices are falling as demand craters… who wants to get locked in on long term inventory when the short term rates continue to fall.

Digital television platform (aka Canoe Ventures) will get serious attention – Certainly the new administration pushing back the digital transition date didn’t help, but frankly with the advertising world in a tail spin right now, Canoe still holds promise of better targeting….although I think most advertisers wished it were live and ready to go today.

Accuracy: Too early to tell

CRM and database marketing will make a comeback – well I’m not seeing it yet… although my email box is deluged daily with a great deal more email than ever, but I can’t attribute that to better CRM or just desperation on behalf of marketers. Plus, with the economy in the dumper, big tech projects are harder to sell unless they can guarantee a result.

Accuracy: Seems I was a bit too optimistic

Media inventory costs will decline – regardless of whether you’re buying upfront or not. This one is definitely on track… with the networks taking a bath on inventory, newspapers having difficulty selling pages prices are falling. What’s concerning is we’re only in March…what will this look like in July?

Accuracy: Dead On

Scott

It’s Going to Get Worse Before it Get’s Better

Scott Berg — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 15:44:00 GMT

And you’re saying to yourself, duh Berg – think of something a bit more original.

First, check out this article on e-marketer, which predicts newspaper revenue will slide another 15.9% in FY09. The article goes on to say “The future for print media companies is online, as evidenced by the growth in Web readership of sites such as The New York Times. Small and local businesses that once depended on newspapers to get their ads in front of customers now have other more measurable options such as paid search advertising.”

And I agree with the statement in general… but let’s dig a bit deeper at what the newspaper industry faces and the tough choices they need to make.

ISSUE 1: CPM’s for online are much lower than CPM’s for print. So they’re just not going to make as much revenue per CPM for online then they would for print.

SOLUTION: Either increase the number of the visitors to the site (and make it up in volume of visitors) or provide such unique value they can charge more for an online CPM. First, make your content free as the NYT.com did a little more than a year ago to boost online visitors. Second, distribute your content outside your web site to aggregators, etc. Third, make your content easy for bloggers to utilize, so they can distribute the content for free.

ISSUE 2: Fixed costs for printing a newspaper. A big old printer to print those newspapers costs a ton of money to run – labor, electricity, purchase cost, financing, real estate, etc. Not to mention the variable costs of paper, ink and maintenance.

SOLUTION: Start making the tough choices – get efficient with those fixed costs, eliminate the ones you can and get much leaner. Then focus on the “digital” property and invest the savings to make your content the best, web access the easiest, etc. You still need reporters – but as opposed to having a paper deadline of x time, these folks work a 24 by 7 shift and upload data to a data center.

ISSUE 3: Provide a better digital product. Let’s face it… most papers that have a web site… don’t easily migrate to new technology. If you don’t have an active blogging program, a social community site, robust search programs, widgets, mobile content, etc. then get in the game.

SOLUTION: Provide the above… but more than that… upgrade and provide new exciting reasons why the consumer and advertiser should continually come back to your site.

Even if you do all the above, the competition is fierce and much of the financial damage has already been done. FY09, and I predict first half of FY10, will be extremely difficult for the media industry. When local newspaper chains begin to file for bankruptcy protection… I think that will be the signal of a bottom. But it’s going to be a rough and very unpleasant year. Let’s hope the stimulus package Congress and the President is pushing is the medicine we need to cure the patient.

Scott

2009 Digital Media Trends

Scott Berg — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 16:21:00 GMT

About this time every year, I make my predictions on what I think lays ahead for the media industry. And again, this year, I’ll do the same, but with a slight focus on the Digital side of the world.

It’s the Economy stupid!

More newspapers and print publications will go out of business – as you’ve probably read, Tribune recently filed for bankruptcy. And with the current economic climate, print advertising will continue to suffer the woes they’ve been feeling the past 5 years. The problem… not only are advertisers shifting to digital, but the cost per thousand for online is usually significantly lower than other forms of media so it’s not a just a matter of gaining share, but they’re caught between a rock and hard place as it relates to raising prices.

Weaker online sites will see advertising revenue sales fall – reason? Advertisers are seeing advertising budgets decrease or be frozen… thus the pie is getting smaller.

Sponsorships will take a beating….unless they can offer a unique customer experience or become very digitally focused. Between NASCARs challenges, the NFL re-evaluating sponsorships, etc. The days of putting signage up in an arena or naming rights are gone. The next phase of sponsorship is customer engagement and digital experience.

Social Websites will see a decrease in ad revenue – for all the above reasons (see point a), but more because marketers are realizing that community development is critical.

Community development will be a priority – marketers will engage differently with the end customer by developing stronger communities and/or engaging with current standing communities.

Rise of the “Un-Badged Employee” – when people are look to purchase a product or service they usually ask around if anyone has any experience or recommendations. So marketers will start to drive more influence communications to key individuals who act as “brand ambassadors” and recommend the brand to others. Apple has been doing this for years, but it’s becoming more commonplace. If you don’t agree, just look at Amazon.com or CNET.com.

SEO will become more important – with decreased budgets, SEM will also feel the budget pinch, so advertisers will focus more attention on SEO to decrease costs and increase search page placement.

Again, mobile will struggle – although mobile applications are becoming more widespread and the use of data is becoming more commonplace, the issues of separate network carriers, too many media rep companies, and the general confusion of what you can/can’t do with mobile will keep it from gathering steam in the US.

Google will continue to gain share – ok this is a “duh” prediction, I admit it. But with Yahoo in turmoil, the recent layoffs, Microsoft not making headway on revenue in the online space… Google will extend it’s lead – either by sure will might and force or through acquisition.

Online Upfronts get more momentum – in order to secure inventory and reduce costs look for more advertisers to commit to online upfronts. Which begs the question, what about the television upfronts? Hell if I know. The past 3 years I’ve been predicting a shift in the amount of dollars going into the upfront and I’ve been wrong… suppose I’ll stick to that prediction this year because as my boss Chris Curtin is famous for saying “a broken clock is still correct 2 times a day.” Perhaps I’ll hit paydirt this year!

Digital television platform (aka Canoe Ventures) will get serious attention – as Canoe begins to roll out it’s digital tv platform, more advertisers will begin experimenting and targeting advertising in the new nirvana state of advertising.

CRM and database marketing will make a comeback – yes you heard me right, the data geeks will reign again. With Canoe Ventures, integration and analysis of click stream data, advertisers will become even more focused on eliminating inefficient advertising and marketing and getting the right message to the right person.

Media inventory costs will decline – regardless of whether you’re buying upfront or not. See point 1. The glut of inventory will put marketers in a stronger position to negotiate further cost cuts and added value. Look for the auto industry to cut spending so dramatically that prices could fall 30% in some media categories over the current levels.

So here are my thoughts… what do predict???

Scott

Project Canoe

Scott Berg — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 19:18:00 GMT

We’re doing a joint blog post this week – Colin Linggo is joining me to discuss Project Canoe. So this past week we had the pleasure of having David Verklin – the new CEO of Canoe Ventures speak to the marketing leadership at HP regarding the company and it’s plans for changing the way people interact with television.

For those of you not familiar with David, all you have to do is Google his name and you’ll get a ga-zillion hits as he is the former CEO of Aegis Media. I’ve heard David speak on a number of occasions and have found his discussions to be extremely thought provoking, controversial at times – but always leaving me with more questions to ponder.

So, for those of you not familiar with Canoe – I direct you some articles on AdWeek, TechCrunch, NYT.com, to get a better understanding. We’re now referring to Canoe as a television platform on steroids!

The part of the discussion which we’ll focus on specific product areas and possible implications:

Addressability – or “targeting” has been an online buzzword for years, but TV has been lagging in this basic online advertising feature. Los Angeles’ interconnect, also known as AdLink, was one of the major DMA’s to employ a technology called AdTag and AdCopy to segment the market and customizing specific messages across it’s footprint. This technology has been around since 2004, but only at the local level. Similar to AdLink, Canoe’s first national go-to-market product is called Creative Versioning Platform which marries the cable industry’s ad zones with demographic databases, and this will offer national advertisers more targeted, relevant and effective advertising with commercials that run simultaneously across the national market with different messages and tags. Although national addressability (or NA) is rudimentary at first, this will be the foundation Canoe will be build upon.

So who might this impact... How about consumer banking? Although there is a major consolidation in recent weeks with consumer banks, they still have specific audiences they are trying to target with their diverse banking products. Imagine Bank of America’s Private Wealth Management group only targeting household income over $150k with one specific message and another message for free checking account for households less than $75k. Or how about Purina dog food for only dog owners? Did you know that 40% of all U.S. TV households own a dog? The opportunities are endless.

Data – will be a major emphasis in Canoe’s charter. Nielsen’s TV ratings methodology has been the currency in which TV advertising deals are negotiated for as long as I can remember. For anyone that sold or bought television knows that Nielsen people meters are only a sample size of the U.S. TV viewing habits. How could this be a true reflection of whom and what people are actually viewing? In the very near future, Canoe will have the ability to measure and monitor viewing via their set top boxes, second by second data by each box. Look familiar? That’s right, the Internet! These boxes will have in-dept and granular data for programmers and advertisers alike. Could this revolutionize how we negotiate TV deals in the future? We shall see…

Voting & Polling – basically being able to use your remote control buttons to vote or answer a poll that shows up discreetly in the corner of your TV. Now this might seem like basic “internet” technology, but think about it from a consumer engagement perspective. As opposed to having to call in to case your vote for American Idol or Dancing with the Stars -- you could simply click the remote control. Or how about during the Super Bowl – as opposed to having Madison Avenue Think Tanks tell us which ads “won” – the consumer could actually vote. And the obvious one, happening right now are the Presidential Debates and Vice Presidential Debate… as opposed to having to do polls after the event, viewers could cast their vote immediately.

So who might this impact….How about cell phone companies, internet surveys and possibly research companies who rely on the internet, telephone or in-person interviews to get quick answers to simple voting, etc.

Request for Information (RFI) – another basic feature with high potential. Basically requesting information on a product/service, etc. via your remote control through a visual that comes up on your TV screen. Now I’ve used this service with my TIVO device to receive information on the new Land Rover vehicles – and it worked great. So imagine being able to have mass network commercials running and people requesting a coupon, information, etc. Pretty powerful stuff – high level of tracking, reduced costs of doing “mass” mailings, ability to test different offers or creative, etc. etc.

T-Commerce – or purchasing products by using your remote control via a TV infomercial or commercial. Now you can sit down and watch The Home Shopping Network and purchase today – but you have to call in, give them your credit card number and sit in front of HSN for hours/days/weeks to find what you might want vs. having it appear as a 1 minute TV ad while you’re watching House and then allowing you to purchase it. What could be better – you buy it during your favorite show, have it billed to your cable bill, have it shipped to your house (as the cable co. has your address) and you pay for it at the end of the month.

So who might this impact….How about credit card companies to begin with! And if the cable company offered to finance the purchases, they could create their own finance companies – similar to auto dealers. That’s called “extra income.”

As we see it, the key to all of this is getting all the cable MSO’s to agree on technology, platforms, compensation, etc. If the MSO owners don’t see the benefits clearly or get greedy, the whole thing could fall apart – and the hope for a true national platform to conduct business through the cable box would be lost. Frankly, I don’t see that the MSO’s have much choice – with ad revenue falling, the percent of each hour the local stations have to sell, and the competition from the internet, search, etc.

If anyone can pull them together and get this project accomplished it’s David Verklin…

Colin Linggo & Scott Berg

What’s the Most Important Media Type During a Recession??

Scott Berg — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 15:26:00 GMT

With the Dow dropping nearly 20% the US economy seems to be poised for a technical “bear” market. Not that the word “technical” means a whole lot, when you have commodity prices rising driving an inflationary marketplace.

But with that in mind, and with the announcement from Zenith media in which they cut the rest of the years media forecast by .03% (from a previous increase of 3.7% to a revised 3.4%), so what’s a marketer to do? And where should you invest your dollars to maximize the highest ROMI?

A number of factors play into these types of decisions, but let’s hash through a few of today’s market and customer realities.

Gas Prices – with gas prices around $4.00 per gallon, the consumer is trying to combine trips, limit overall travel, etc.
Pocketbook Squeeze – with not only gas going up, but the costs of food, clothing, etc. also being pushed upward, the consumer is searching for the lowest possible cost.

Here’s how and why I’d rank my media choices based on the before mentioned consumer challenges….

Search – allowing the consumer to find the lowest price and/or check the availability of the product before running out can work to your advantage.
Point of Sale – boost up those POS signs in store to drive impulse purchases.
Web Site – ensure your web site is optimized for search; landing pages are extra easy to navigate and drive to checkout quickly. And use the web site to advertise sales, discounts, low shipping costs, etc.
Interactive Banners – driving demand generation banners which allow the consumer to actually purchase the product at a lower cost (while keeping shipping costs manageable) is another way to help the consumer and gain market share. Make it easy, fast and cost efficient.
Radio – it’s cheap on a per GRP basis, easy to target and can be used to get the message out about a sale or discount. The key I believe is to ensure you have plenty of frequency during afternoon drive and be sure to list out locations so the consumer can make a “quick” stop to pickup the item(s). My recommendation… weekday’s afternoon drive/weekends during the entire day part when shopping is at it’s highest.
Newspaper – yes newspaper… but I would use it only on key shopping days such as Saturday or Sunday.

Others that should also be considered but I won't rank include: direct mail, email, etc. All the other media types fall off my list at this point for demand generation, because either the cost is a bit too high or the return is bit too low.

Needless to say, regardless of the media type, you must spend money during recessionary times to make money… they key is investing it appropriately.

Scott